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Comment: Beware the risk that callback of house price reason brings consumptive
From;    Author:Stand originally
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House price be issued to lower levels, this is local phenomenon only, be not integral behavior, can say the callback that is a kind of reason, the health of future of this pair of estate is meddlesome for development, but meanwhile, we also must note the negative effect of house price be issued to lower levels, that consumes atrophic risk namely.

Generally speaking, the proportion that estate assets takes dweller family money is larger. Of estate value drop, to estate possessory and character means fortune gross to decrease apparently, they can reduce marginal propensity to consume accordingly, decrease current consumption; On the other hand, after dropping when estate value, estate is possessory the value that if carry mortgage,loan or the form that sell estate realize estate, income is sure to decrease accordingly, also meet those who bring about consumption decrease thereby. If estate is possessory,did not undertake building guaranty borrows money, also did not sell owns estate, when estate price drops, because they predict estate to stick present worth to be able to decrease in what will come, can decrease so current consumption.


To having a house person (or owner) , when house price drops, the wealth effect that is the person that invest a step with house property drops degree should compare the person that live oneself much, the consumption that expects to invest profitable person through house property consequently should compare the person that live oneself to drop more, this means a spec to fry the area with more serious room, consumption level drops faster than other area, thereby economic growth range should compare other area more hasten delay. OK and bold prophecy, photograph of GDP growth rate compares Shenzhen to will drop somewhat last year this year.


From the point of beyond of the person that buy a house, by often manage commonly, commodity price drops the consumption that can produce income effect to increase this kind of commodity or pair of other goods thereby, but house of this pair of commodity is not this kind of special commodity such, commodity house serves as a necessaries of life, the price elasticity of supply is very small, and beg for be less than. House price rises more, people can jump over strive to be the first to buy, once house price drops, people manages money instead wait-and-see, good chance of sit back and wait, accordingly, manage money wait-and-see person also won't easily rushed and informal the consumption that uses income at other side.


House price be issued to lower levels, CPI lasts perch moves, a series of elements bring about the wealth effect of housing to go low gradually, plus the stock market depressed, consumption gradually decadent avoids hard it seems that. Release according to the month on national statistic bureau 2008 first half of the year data of each economy finance, financial orgnaization remaining sum of each RMB deposit forty-three thousand eight hundred and ninety-eight billion nine hundred million yuan, increase four thousand nine hundred and sixty-four billion nine hundred million yuan than the beginning of the year, amplitude is amounted to 12% , although this and current stock market are small,confuse cause deposit circumfluence to have particular concern, but the consumption that also includes risk of house price be issued to lower levels to cause necessarily among them is atrophic thereby the element of deposit increase.
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