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Lucky letter considers to report: Price of Chinese inland house will fall 2008 1
From;    Author:Stand originally
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Letter of investment bank luck published research report yesterday, anticipate Chinese property value will is down further, believe short-term and municipal seat of government has direct policy to relax to this industry unlikely. And be in uptodate below the circumstance with inferior value of appraise of this kinds of share, investor of lucky letter proposal is right discretion of appropriate of this kinds of share chooses, first selection is ground of China embellish buy (1109.HK) with green city China (3900.HK) .

According to Reuter report, luck believes internally estate integral grade is " as synchronous as the market " , but expect outback floor price can fall 2008 15% , dropped again 2009 5% , expect floor price will be held after 2010 firm.


Accordingly, luck is believed Chinese land agent 2008 to average 2009 every gain is forecasted reduce respectively 31% with 35% .


The report points out, chinese interest rate and deposit reserve are led already saw a top, anticipate organic meeting reduces deposit reserve to lead the risk that increases rein in with answering economy before the bottom this year. Should anticipate all right, policy relaxes to be like,can be aimed at only capital construction, medium the industry related small look forward to and exit, do not think short-term inside can come on stage relax the policy of landed course of study.


Lucky letter expresses, inside room present price is folded relative to every asset net value let amount to 4 into, for historical lowest, came 2008 2010 forecast city to be filled with rate it is respectively 14 times, 9.2 times with 6.9 times. In estate of a batch of inland in, lucky letter values ground of China embellish buy and green city China most, give " run win big city " grade, target price is mixed for 8.49 HK dollar respectively 5.56 HK dollar. Should fall all right China is abroad (0688.HK) , Guangzhou rich force is landed (2777.HK) He Shimao China (0813.HK) grade comes " neuter " , think accrete achieve exhibit (0754.HK) will " run be defeated by big city " . (Editor: Sima Beichen)




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